Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb8b…e41e world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$31
other 8% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 1% −$9
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 23 +5.7% -4.4% 43% 9% -8.2%
≤90d 27 +4.9% -5.1% 41% 7% -8.4%
all 36 +0.0% -9.5% 47% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 11% -8.9%
10% -18.2% 6% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 6% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage537d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $5 $0 -9%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $22 −$2 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $61 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $64 −$3 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $198 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $68 −$4 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $142 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $57 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $71 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $27 +$38 +141%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $78 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $77 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $283 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $220 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $274 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $226 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $226 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $223 +$3 +1%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? May 06 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February Feb 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Southern Mississippi vs. UL Monroe Feb 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 13? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle vs. Abilene Christian Feb 14 $9 +$11 +133%
Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December? Jan 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 30 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $35 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $4 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $5 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $60 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $64 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $27 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $43 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $70 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.10 · official $60.86 (match) · 146 history records