Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xeb8b…6d8a other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,395 (-15%) realized −$9,823 · open +$1,428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,186per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$22,130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$168
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$2,793
sports 11% −$5,312
world 0% −$200
crypto 0% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +165.3% +140.0% 100% 100% +140.0%
≤30d 1 +165.3% +140.0% 100% 100% +140.0%
≤90d 1 +165.3% +140.0% 100% 100% +140.0%
all 41 -5.5% -14.5% 24% 24% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 24% -34.9%
10% -22.7% 24% -41.1%
15% -30.1% 24% -46.8%
20% -37.0% 22% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +165% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,100) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -59% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,002 vs −$643 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$22,130
Realized−$9,823
Unrealized+$1,428
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,186
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $19,458 $21,058 +$1,600 (+8%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $250 $328 +$78 (+31%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 36¢ $365 $270 −$95 (-26%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $130 $197 +$67 (+52%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $300 $110 −$190 (-63%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $100 $18 −$82 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Mar 05 $1,449 −$1,449 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $3,273 +$2,176 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 03 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Mar 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $1,000 +$1,205 +120%
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Mar 02 $400 −$400 -100%
Will AS Roma vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $10 +$289 +2888%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches? Mar 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1,635 +$999 +61%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2,500 +$1,038 +42%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $1,100 −$857 -78%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 +$75 +75%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $5,500 +$3,362 +61%
Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar end in a draw? Feb 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 26 $2,767 −$2,767 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $1,713 −$1,713 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $897 +$572 +64%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Feb 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Feb 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $132 +$132 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 06 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 06 $100 −$99 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 06 $384 −$6 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $66 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $133 1h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 15h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $257 15h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 15h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3,966 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3,931 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $12,044 3d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,449 105d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? BUY Yes 40¢ $4,000 105d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,449 106d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 60¢ $3,273 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 107d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 51¢ $250 107d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) BUY Liverpool FC 40¢ $2,000 107d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,500 107d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $500 108d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY Yes 34¢ $250 108d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY Yes 34¢ $250 108d
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-03-02? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 108d
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-03-02? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,205 108d
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $400 108d
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-03-02? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,000 108d
Will AS Roma vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $299 109d
Will AS Roma vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 109d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 38¢ $150 109d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 33¢ $150 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,130.31 · official $22,130.31 (match) · 73 history records