Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb94…6ef0 crypto 767 markets active 8h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$246 (+0%) realized +$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%528W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$158
14 days−$130
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$192
sports 33% −$32
other 12% +$72
politics 1% −$69
world 0% −$10
culture 0% +$64
tech 0% +$11
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -5.5% -14.5% 66% 62% -6.9%
≤30d 193 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 67% -6.9%
≤90d 523 -2.6% -11.9% 68% 60% -10.6%
all 766 +0.2% -9.3% 69% 60% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 60% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 46% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 28% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 15% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$47 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses528 / 238
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)766 / 767
History coverage124d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 766 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$21 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $58 +$29 +50%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $79 +$20 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 +$35 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $96 +$16 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $118 −$22 -18%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$70 +69%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$205 +196%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $73 −$35 -48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 +$37 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $91 +$25 +27%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $112 +$16 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $163 +$12 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $60 +$18 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 +$18 +23%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $76 +$22 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$38 +62%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$17 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $8 +$5 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$13 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $58 12h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 79¢ $79 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $50 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $72 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 23h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 81¢ $36 27h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 88¢ $60 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $88 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 35h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $30 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $15 37h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $30 37h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $50 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $71 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 73¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2100 history records