Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb94…803a crypto 339 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$250 (-3%) realized −$119 · open −$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate70%227W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$53
14 days−$49
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$188
world 14% −$145
other 10% −$86
finance 1% +$16
politics 1% +$32
sports 1% +$8
economics 0% −$10
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -2.9% -12.1% 73% 46% -15.5%
≤30d 66 +0.3% -9.3% 74% 48% -12.9%
≤90d 279 -1.7% -11.1% 72% 30% -11.8%
all 322 -1.8% -11.2% 70% 32% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 32% -12.7%
10% -19.7% 17% -21.0%
15% -27.4% 12% -28.7%
20% -34.5% 9% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses227 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)322 / 339
History coverage116d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +52%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$11 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 2h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.37 · official $157.42 (match) · 896 history records