Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb94…465e crypto 1297 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$147 (+3%) realized −$417 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%495W / 798L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day143.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$311
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$416
weather 6% −$3
other 2% +$2
politics 0% −$6
sports 0% +$4
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -7.2% -16.0% 29% 25% -18.9%
≤30d 1293 -9.6% -18.2% 38% 30% -16.1%
≤90d 1293 -9.6% -18.2% 38% 30% -16.1%
all 1293 -9.6% -18.2% 38% 30% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 30% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 27% -24.2%
15% -33.2% 21% -31.5%
20% -39.7% 16% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses495 / 798
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1293 / 1297
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day143.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? No 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? No 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 7? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$5 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$6 +205%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$7 +202%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$9 +729%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$7 +232%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +856%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$7 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$7 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.38 · official $4.38 (match) · 3500 history records