Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb98…ab5e other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141 (-4%) realized −$143 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$514
7 days−$289
14 days−$262
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$120
economics 21% +$67
tech 15% +$100
crypto 13% −$35
sports 9% −$127
politics 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -29.5% -36.2% 40% 40% -30.2%
≤30d 27 -24.0% -31.3% 44% 44% -27.5%
≤90d 27 -24.0% -31.3% 44% 44% -27.5%
all 38 -15.8% -23.8% 55% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 45% -14.1%
10% -31.1% 34% -22.3%
15% -37.8% 32% -29.8%
20% -43.9% 18% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$43 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage290d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 78¢ 76¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $141 +$63 +44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$25 +72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Jun 20 $199 −$199 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$6 -20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$50 +45%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$51 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$72 +48%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
TikTok sale announced by November 30? Dec 04 $300 +$2 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $295 +$50 +17%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $286 +$9 +3%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Oct 16 $189 +$97 +52%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 18 $189 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $20 +$4 +20%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum above $4200 on September 8? Sep 09 $50 +$17 +33%
Ethereum above $4100 on September 8? Sep 09 $101 +$14 +14%
Ethereum above $4200 on September 5? Sep 06 $142 +$9 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 42h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $24 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $31 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $112 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 7d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 68¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.52 · official $211.52 (match) · 88 history records