Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EB 0xeb99…0730 sports 172 markets active 7d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,476 (+2%) realized +$1,476 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%76W / 93L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$752
30 days+$1,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$406
politics 18% +$13
other 12% +$983
culture 6% −$31
tech 5% −$189
world 2% +$342
economics 2% −$10
finance 1% −$14
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 93 +13.0% +2.2% 63% 43% -6.6%
≤90d 110 +10.5% -0.0% 60% 39% -6.6%
all 169 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 28% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 28% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 20% -16.8%
15% -20.8% 16% -24.8%
20% -28.6% 12% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$27 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses76 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 172
History coverage100d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $476 +$27 +6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $539 +$80 +15%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $164 −$32 -20%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $485 −$110 -23%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $328 +$43 +13%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $207 −$74 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $336 +$64 +19%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,179 −$16 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $420 +$201 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $396 −$92 -23%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $849 +$1 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$16 -52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 +$3 +2%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $799 +$1 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 +$19 +89%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $198 +$102 +52%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $147 +$21 +14%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $69 +$31 +45%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $117 +$33 +28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$78 +154%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $515 −$115 -22%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $51 +$36 +70%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $27 +$73 +276%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $154 +$26 +17%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $49 +$56 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $38 −$21 -54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 +$17 +69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$17 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $54 +$46 +86%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $187 +$66 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $630 +$87 +14%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $103 −$23 -23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,277 +$23 +1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 13 $3,300 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $79 +$21 +26%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $114 −$27 -23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $51 +$170 +332%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,609 +$3 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,486 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $532 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $2,657 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $503 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $619 7d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $132 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $374 7d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $46 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $133 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $399 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $162 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $534 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $207 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $4 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $300 8d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $396 8d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $849 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $15 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $31 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 47¢ $19 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $18 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 49¢ $0 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 49¢ $19 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $154 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 8d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $799 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 53¢ $21 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1673 history records