Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EB 0xeb99…2465 sports 3 markets active 5d ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$15,540 (+181%) realized +$15,540 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +159% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +112% what you keep after slip
Net edge+112%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,866per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$15,378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+134.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +220.4% +189.9% 100% 100% +189.9%
≤30d 3 +158.9% +134.3% 100% 100% +152.3%
≤90d 3 +158.9% +134.3% 100% 100% +152.3%
all 3 +158.9% +134.3% 100% 100% +152.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +134.3% 100% +152.3%
10% ← realistic here +111.9% 100% +128.1%
15% +91.4% 100% +106.1%
20% +72.6% 100% +85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +179% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +159% · $-wt +179% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,126 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15,540
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2,866
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4,795 +$10,571 +220%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,810 +$2,991 +165%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1,994 +$1,816 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $15,366 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $205 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $306 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $205 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $204 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $408 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 40¢ $2,036 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1,810 14d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 100¢ $1,102 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 100¢ $1,102 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 93¢ $685 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 94¢ $922 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 50¢ $1,994 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records