Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EB 0xeb9a…0d58 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$240 (+116%) realized +$241 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +150% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +117% what you keep after slip

Net edge+117%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+126.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+149.8%	+126.0%	100%	100%	+126.0%
≤30d	3	+149.8%	+126.0%	100%	100%	+126.0%
≤90d	3	+149.8%	+126.0%	100%	100%	+126.0%
all	3	+149.8%	+126.0%	100%	100%	+126.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+126.0%	100%	+126.0%
10%	+104.4%	100%	+104.4%
15%	+84.6%	100%	+84.7%
20%	+66.5%	100%	+66.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +150% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +150% · $-wt +150% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$77 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized+$241

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Jun 17	$52	+$91	+177%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$51	+$86	+166%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$51	+$55	+106%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$52	1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	SELL Argentina	88¢	$143	8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	97¢	$137	8h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	BUY Argentina	30¢	$52	9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	35¢	$51	10h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	88¢	$106	14h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	41¢	$51	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.04 · official $49.04 (match) · 7 history records