Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
EB 0xeba1…8616 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+1%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$3
sports 26% +$69
other 17% +$13
world 12% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +94.1% +75.7% 50% 50% +49.8%
≤30d 2 +94.1% +75.7% 50% 50% +49.8%
≤90d 10 +44.5% +30.8% 60% 30% +17.8%
all 39 +11.4% +0.8% 46% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 8% -8.4%
10% -8.8% 8% -17.1%
15% -17.6% 8% -25.1%
20% -25.7% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×16.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.96 per $1 lost it wins $13.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage383d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 59¢ 58¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engl Jun 22 $24 +$45 +188%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 21 $14 +$14 +105%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 21 $17 +$26 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 29 $43 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Mar 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 27? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 26 $740 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 12-18? Jan 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Jan 16 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 16 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jan 16 $730 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 5? Jan 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ângela Maryah win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Nov 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on September 1? Nov 05 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4700 on September 1? Oct 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Sep 01 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Aug 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3000 on July 21? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $267 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 11 $265 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Jun 04 $288 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Jun 04 $285 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 59¢ $31 1h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engl BUY Yes 34¢ $24 31d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 48¢ $14 39d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 39¢ $17 39d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 54d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 54d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 76d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $15 76d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 76d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 87d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 87d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 87d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 87d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 87d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $41 101d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $14 101d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $55 101d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 100¢ $739 147d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $400 147d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $340 147d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $718 147d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 147d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? SELL No 100¢ $714 157d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $28 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.77 · official $30.77 (match) · 108 history records