Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeba1…44df crypto 457 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,294 (-5%) realized −$2,226 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%211W / 243L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$499
14 days+$393
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$1,590
sports 36% −$736
other 9% −$488
weather 3% −$15
finance 2% −$267
tech 1% +$542
politics 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +20.8% +9.3% 53% 53% +40.4%
≤30d 37 -14.9% -23.0% 41% 38% -7.5%
≤90d 122 -31.5% -38.0% 34% 33% -41.5%
all 454 -4.0% -13.2% 46% 46% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 46% -14.6%
10% -21.5% 44% -22.8%
15% -29.1% 43% -30.3%
20% -36.0% 40% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$90 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$2,226
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses211 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)454 / 457
History coverage133d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Down 41¢ 38¢ $82 $76 −$6 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $73 $43 −$30 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $79 +$71 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $40 +$40 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $67 +$106 +157%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$57 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$54 +119%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $125 +$125 +100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $53 +$57 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $61 +$79 +129%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $116 +$138 +118%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $57 −$56 -98%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $50 +$36 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $68 +$80 +118%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $39 −$38 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $28 +$34 +120%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $83 +$98 +119%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -96%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $131 −$126 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? May 29 $85 −$81 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $52 +$31 +59%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $38 −$37 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $108 −$106 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $83 −$79 -96%
KBO: LG Twins vs. SSG Landers May 16 $52 −$22 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $80 +$29 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 15 $91 −$87 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 11 $58 +$52 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $48 −$47 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $21 −$21 -96%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fo May 09 $60 +$19 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 09 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 09 $41 −$40 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 09 $129 +$115 +89%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 09 $132 −$130 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $77 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 41¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $79 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $40 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 17h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 87¢ $173 17h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 33¢ $34 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 33¢ $34 19h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $14 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $7 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $5 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $3 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $3 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $5 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $6 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $3 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $48 46h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 46h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.05 · official $119.05 (match) · 1069 history records