Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeba3…71cc crypto 1353 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$949 (-7%) realized −$734 · open −$215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%777W / 574L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$732
30 days−$732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$939
world 4% −$215
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -38.4% -44.3% 0% 0% -44.3%
≤30d 87 -65.0% -68.4% 15% 13% -64.8%
≤90d 1042 -7.0% -15.9% 59% 55% -18.2%
all 1351 -4.2% -13.3% 58% 54% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 54% -16.4%
10% -21.6% 48% -24.4%
15% -29.2% 39% -31.7%
20% -36.1% 32% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$734
Unrealized−$215
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses777 / 574
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1351 / 1353
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $447 $285 −$162 (-36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $51 −$20 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +123%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$8 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$4 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$10 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$61 +292%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$16 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $41 −$19 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$20 +98%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$2 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $342 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $32 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 36¢ $31 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $24 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $49 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $53 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $16 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $9 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $8 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.09 · official $285.09 (match) · 3500 history records