Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebab…cee0 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$161 (-6%) realized −$141 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$102
14 days−$121
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$100
other 42% +$1
sports 5% −$43
crypto 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.0% -24.9% 47% 29% +4.3%
≤30d 23 -16.9% -24.8% 43% 30% -15.8%
≤90d 23 -16.9% -24.8% 43% 30% -15.8%
all 23 -16.9% -24.8% 43% 30% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 30% -15.8%
10% -32.0% 30% -23.8%
15% -38.6% 30% -31.2%
20% -44.6% 22% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions30
Markets (closed)23 / 53
History coverage20d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $82 $95 +$13 (+16%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $71 $76 +$5 (+7%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $83 $70 −$13 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $49 +$17 (+52%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $56 $42 −$15 (-26%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $34 −$4 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $33 +$1 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $32 −$7 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $21 +$5 (+32%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $20 −$3 (-13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 35¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 13¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $5 −$2 (-35%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$52 +58%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $38 −$17 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$17 +49%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $134 +$112 +84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $73 −$6 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $73 −$12 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 13 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 09 $631 −$202 -32%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$9 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 12¢ $1 22m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 56m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $65 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $45 16h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 16h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 22h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 22h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 12¢ $13 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 23h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 12¢ $21 23h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 10¢ $38 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $717.60 · official $717.61 (match) · 314 history records