Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebab…60b5 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1
other 19% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 37 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage447d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $60 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $12 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $1 +$1 +74%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in Epstein files? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 9–16? May 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $13 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 04 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $1 $0 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $32 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $32 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $31 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $31 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $13 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $24 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $24 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $33 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $33 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $9 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $20 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $28 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $30 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $29 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $24 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $6 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $30 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $30 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.81 · official $28.65 (match) · 103 history records