Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xebab…cff5 other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,482 (+5%) realized +$4,578 · open −$96
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate85%28W / 5L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2,099per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$13,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$605
7 days+$2,312
14 days+$2,172
30 days+$4,312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$1,728
world 24% +$761
finance 15% +$874
tech 15% +$655
politics 5% +$224
sports 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +17.0% +5.9% 86% 50% -2.2%
≤30d 33 +12.5% +1.8% 85% 33% -4.3%
≤90d 33 +12.5% +1.8% 85% 33% -4.3%
all 33 +12.5% +1.8% 85% 33% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 33% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 18% -13.4%
15% -16.9% 18% -21.8%
20% -25.0% 15% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$3,901) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$155 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.58 per $1 lost it wins $6.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$13,530
Realized+$4,578
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses28 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2,099
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $3,758 $3,541 −$217 (-6%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $2,880 $2,711 −$169 (-6%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,823 $1,828 +$5 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 92¢ 90¢ $1,653 $1,606 −$47 (-3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 77¢ 98¢ $1,160 $1,477 +$317 (+27%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $974 $998 +$24 (+3%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $791 $778 −$13 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $556 $553 −$3 (-1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 94¢ $31 $37 +$6 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 25 $35 +$13 +38%
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Will South Korea finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 25 $378 +$7 +2%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $4,214 +$452 +11%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 24 $4,806 +$224 +5%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,984 +$233 +12%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3,025 +$346 +11%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 +$24 +92%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 +$18 +69%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $26 +$24 +96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$28 +110%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3,901 +$362 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$8 +17%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$18 -34%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3,016 +$58 +2%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3,532 +$315 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 20 $455 +$40 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 20 $1,196 +$91 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,527 +$168 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $5,233 −$636 -12%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,017 +$87 +3%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,053 +$46 +4%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 13 $2,956 +$172 +6%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 13 $4,790 +$210 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $698 −$18 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $8,980 +$882 +10%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 05 $1,860 +$96 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $7,377 +$515 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $4,950 +$366 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $4,982 +$281 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1,658 2m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $558 3m
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 72¢ $35 11h
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY No 51¢ $10 11h
Will South Korea finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 98¢ $378 11h
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 29h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $935 43h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $19 44h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $9 45h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $19 46h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $16 47h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $960 47h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,007 47h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $337 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $178 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $552 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,324 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $1,971 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $11 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $10 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $43 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $232 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $0 2d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $3,025 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $54 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,529.83 · official $13,529.83 (match) · 360 history records