Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:11:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xebae…2c41 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,704 (-28%) realized −$2,653 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$693
14 days−$2,747
30 days−$2,747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$2,575
crypto 2% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +14.3% +3.4% 70% 70% -21.6%
≤30d 18 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 50% -35.6%
≤90d 18 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 50% -35.6%
all 18 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 50% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 50% -35.6%
10% -33.8% 39% -41.7%
15% -40.2% 39% -47.4%
20% -46.0% 28% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$931) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -42% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$555 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$2,653
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage12d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $224 $174 −$51 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $460 −$458 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$20 +129%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,110 −$1,100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$119 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $690 +$315 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $405 +$285 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $586 −$577 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $615 +$374 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $295 +$322 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $346 −$340 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $931 +$425 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $554 +$379 +68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $226 −$222 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,001 −$996 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $227 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $460 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,110 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,122 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $690 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $586 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $989 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $293 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $322 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $295 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $203 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $346 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $931 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $933 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $497 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $226 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,001 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.73 · official $173.73 (match) · 30 history records