Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebb1…e7af weather 768 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,154 (+6%) realized +$2,163 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%376W / 387L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$57
14 days−$79
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% +$2,455
sports 12% −$695
other 8% −$235
world 1% −$25
politics 0% +$29
tech 0% +$20
finance 0% +$6
crypto 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.8% -20.2% 71% 71% -1.0%
≤30d 83 +14.1% +3.2% 47% 45% -15.2%
≤90d 309 +13.4% +2.6% 45% 43% -8.5%
all 763 +17.1% +5.9% 49% 44% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 44% -5.0%
10% -4.2% 34% -14.1%
15% -13.5% 28% -22.4%
20% -22.0% 23% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$2,163
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses376 / 387
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)763 / 768
History coverage157d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 763 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? No 71¢ 64¢ $93 $84 −$9 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? No 68¢ 68¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $85 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $86 +$32 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $110 +$18 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $168 +$37 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $90 +$22 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $66 +$34 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$12 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $121 −$121 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 −$63 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$5 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$19 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 16 $74 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $53 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$54 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $80 −$80 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 +$21 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $72 −$9 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $64 +$31 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$15 +95%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $45 +$30 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $82 +$18 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$14 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$36 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$14 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $59 −$17 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 −$20 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 −$38 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $94 −$42 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $107 −$67 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$16 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $81 +$66 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $46 −$9 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 08 $17 −$15 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $36 +$12 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $23 −$22 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$23 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $84 −$75 -90%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $25 +$25 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $25 +$23 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 69¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 67¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 73¢ $59 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 5¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 37¢ $19 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 34¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 84¢ $85 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $13 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 34¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $28 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $26 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $41 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.84 · official $137.84 (match) · 3500 history records