Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xebb1…df99 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+47%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +33.3% +20.6% 86% 71% +34.4%
≤30d 7 +33.3% +20.6% 86% 71% +34.4%
≤90d 7 +33.3% +20.6% 86% 71% +34.4%
all 7 +33.3% +20.6% 86% 71% +34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.6% 71% +34.4%
10% ← realistic here +9.1% 71% +21.5%
15% -1.5% 71% +9.8%
20% -11.1% 29% -1.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.14 per $1 lost it wins $6.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records