Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xebb2…79b0 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+10%) realized +$22 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%27W / 19L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$16
crypto 45% +$14
sports 8% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +5.6% -4.4% 59% 50% -3.6%
≤30d 46 +5.6% -4.4% 59% 50% -3.6%
≤90d 46 +5.6% -4.4% 59% 50% -3.6%
all 46 +5.6% -4.4% 59% 50% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 50% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 30% -12.9%
15% -21.9% 17% -21.3%
20% -29.6% 11% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 86¢ $40 $68 +$28 (+71%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $8 −$5 -56%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +35%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -26%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$34 +74%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$29 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$7 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$46 +862%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $35 +$22 +61%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 32m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 23h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $8 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.71 · official $71.71 (match) · 104 history records