Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebb2…21a5 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,572 (+13%) realized +$1,572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,235
7 days−$119
14 days−$185
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$98
sports 13% −$376
world 6% +$855
crypto 3% −$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.6% -6.3% 53% 53% -9.8%
≤30d 38 -5.3% -14.3% 47% 47% -8.9%
≤90d 49 +4.5% -5.4% 41% 41% -8.5%
all 52 +4.3% -5.6% 40% 40% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 40% -5.4%
10% -14.6% 38% -14.5%
15% -22.9% 37% -22.8%
20% -30.4% 27% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$140 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage330d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $376 −$354 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,054 −$697 -66%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $791 −$750 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $210 −$200 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $263 −$234 -89%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $105 +$54 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,056 +$1,166 +110%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,050 +$454 +43%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $119 +$255 +214%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$84 -42%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $425 +$161 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $412 −$185 -45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$44 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $74 −$30 -41%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,050 +$443 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$85 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $551 −$501 -91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 +$141 +214%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$49 -80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$51 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 +$16 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $212 +$88 +42%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 $0 -2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 +$130 +1198%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$7 -92%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$10 -92%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$15 -92%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$10 -92%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $585 +$981 +168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $376 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 20¢ $357 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $527 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $264 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $263 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $527 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $264 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $210 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $158 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $525 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,056 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $525 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $119 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $118 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $586 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $228 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $425 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $210 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $61 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 8d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records