Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xebb4…d706 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+4%) realized +$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$16
other 30% −$7
politics 3% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -14.2%
≤30d 6 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% -10.8%
≤90d 14 -5.3% -14.3% 36% 36% -39.1%
all 15 +9.9% -0.6% 40% 40% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 40% -5.4%
10% -10.1% 40% -14.4%
15% -18.8% 40% -22.7%
20% -26.8% 40% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$46 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage256d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$19 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$37 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 −$32 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $21 +$54 +260%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $32 +$65 +203%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 $0 -2%
Park vs. Aliskerov Apr 13 $48 −$48 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 13 $23 −$23 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 13 $91 −$91 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Apr 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Santos vs. Yoo Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Aspinall vs. Gane Apr 13 $50 +$50 +100%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 12 $100 +$223 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $51 7d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 75¢ $74 13d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 20¢ $21 14d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 47¢ $42 38d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 61¢ $55 38d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 13¢ $10 38d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $21 38d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Tatsuro Taira 65¢ $2 38d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 74¢ $4 38d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Tatsuro Taira 81¢ $8 38d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 61¢ $6 38d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $91 101d
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 23¢ $23 136d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Lopes 41¢ $41 137d
Aspinall vs. Gane BUY Gane 25¢ $50 234d
Park vs. Aliskerov BUY Park 34¢ $48 234d
Ankalaev vs. Pereira BUY Pereira 31¢ $100 255d
Santos vs. Yoo BUY Yoo 43¢ $100 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.05 · official $113.05 (match) · 35 history records