Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebb5…ec99 sports 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$441 (-2%) realized −$441 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%95W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$367
14 days+$550
30 days+$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$164
other 39% +$219
crypto 3% −$239
world 1% −$269
weather 0% +$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.9% -16.6% 42% 42% +12.4%
≤30d 31 +3.8% -6.1% 45% 45% +6.7%
≤90d 182 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 39% -9.7%
all 240 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 39% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 39% -11.5%
10% -21.9% 37% -19.9%
15% -29.5% 33% -27.7%
20% -36.4% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$55 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses95 / 145
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 243
History coverage105d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$91 +90%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $222 +$99 +44%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $31 +$110 +359%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $122 −$120 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$232 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 +$22 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$79 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $31 −$21 -67%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$6 -59%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $245 −$241 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 +$162 +80%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 +$60 +291%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $51 −$42 -83%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$68 +133%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$124 +121%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$96 -95%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $203 −$30 -15%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $61 −$60 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5 May 02 $200 −$175 -88%
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? May 02 $103 −$88 -86%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $32 −$31 -98%
CD Tolima vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $23 −$17 -73%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw? Apr 29 $102 −$94 -91%
CD Tolima vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $10 +$13 +129%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Apr 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $10 −$8 -76%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $21 +$31 +146%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5 Apr 28 $20 +$15 +76%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $40 +$39 +97%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5 Apr 27 $37 +$30 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $320 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $150 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $71 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 85¢ $141 5h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $26 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $26 37h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $122 37h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $15 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $61 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $3 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 20¢ $20 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $136 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $90 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $10 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 677 history records