Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebb6…4d91 crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-8%) realized −$54 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day101.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$32
sports 36% +$13
other 9% −$58
finance 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -29.0% -35.7% 50% 23% -19.2%
≤30d 26 -29.0% -35.7% 50% 23% -19.2%
≤90d 26 -29.0% -35.7% 50% 23% -19.2%
all 26 -29.0% -35.7% 50% 23% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.7% 23% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 12% -26.9%
15% -47.5% 8% -34.0%
20% -52.6% 8% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day101.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 72¢ 54¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $38 −$9 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $86 +$14 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? Jun 23 $11 +$9 +88%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $21 $0 +2%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $19 +$1 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $18 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +15%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$12 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $19 +$6 +31%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $143 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $22 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $28 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 29m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $86 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 14h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? BUY No 53¢ $10 14h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 23? BUY No 53¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Ashlyn Krueger 91¢ $9 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Ashlyn Krueger 91¢ $9 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas BUY Sofia Costoulas 16¢ $5 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 35¢ $7 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 55¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.25 · official $77.75 · 120 history records