Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebb7…4736 sports 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$383 (+1%) realized +$329 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%106W / 63L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$10,531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$389
14 days+$27
30 days+$410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$212
other 28% −$55
crypto 7% −$8
sports 6% +$227
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -24.9% -32.1% 37% 35% -29.6%
≤30d 161 +4.2% -5.7% 61% 42% -8.7%
≤90d 169 +3.7% -6.2% 63% 40% -8.9%
all 169 +3.7% -6.2% 63% 40% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 40% -8.9%
10% -15.2% 40% -17.7%
15% -23.4% 37% -25.6%
20% -30.9% 28% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$10,531
Realized+$329
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses106 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions13
Markets (closed)169 / 182
History coverage38d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $6,654 $6,709 +$55 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,489 $2,490 +$1 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $794 $775 −$19 (-2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 81¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Raphael Perot 50¢ 96¢ $30 $58 +$28 (+92%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Sarah Rakotomanga 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Frances Tiafoe 70¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 54¢ 50¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 69¢ 64¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $332 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $30 +$35 +114%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $30 +$20 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $30 +$21 +68%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $30 −$5 -15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$89 +291%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $31 +$39 +129%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $30 +$35 +114%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $31 +$55 +180%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $31 +$89 +291%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Makarska: Miriam Bulgaru vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $10 +$6 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $489 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,000 50m
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $30 2h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 50¢ $30 2h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 69¢ $30 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 54¢ $30 2h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 47¢ $30 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ $31 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $31 2h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $30 2h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 56¢ $30 28h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $30 28h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $30 28h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 56¢ $30 28h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $31 28h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 39¢ $31 28h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $30 28h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $30 28h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $296 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 53¢ $30 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 53¢ $0 2d
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 57¢ $30 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan BUY Rebeka Masarova 58¢ $30 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 61¢ $30 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 53¢ $30 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 58¢ $30 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ $30 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $31 3d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Lucia Bronzetti 43¢ $31 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 46¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,530.62 · official $10,530.63 (match) · 479 history records