Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebba…639b crypto 426 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,198 (+1%) realized +$1,197 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%415W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$122
14 days+$283
30 days+$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$425
finance 19% +$557
tech 7% +$123
other 6% +$20
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.4% -8.2% 92% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 72 +1.7% -7.9% 97% 3% -8.2%
≤90d 306 +1.6% -8.1% 98% 2% -8.3%
all 424 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -8.4%
10% -17.0% 1% -17.1%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$55 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$752
Realized+$1,197
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses415 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)424 / 426
History coverage119d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $502 $504 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $249 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $600 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $246 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $324 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $377 +$16 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24? Jun 24 $441 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $677 +$23 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? Jun 22 $536 +$24 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $896 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? Jun 21 $841 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? Jun 20 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $290 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 18? Jun 18 $456 +$14 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $800 +$24 +3%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 17? Jun 17 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $481 +$19 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $295 +$3 +1%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $680 +$20 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 15? Jun 15 $672 +$28 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $693 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $471 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $746 +$4 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? Jun 12 $476 +$24 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $689 +$10 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $661 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $243 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $400 +$6 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 11 $128 +$22 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 11 $264 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $187 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $453 +$6 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $426 +$15 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $594 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $108 +$3 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 8? Jun 09 $36 +$2 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8? Jun 09 $44 +$6 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8? Jun 09 $392 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $592 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 6? Jun 07 $647 +$3 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 5? Jun 05 $628 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $189 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $432 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 4? Jun 05 $588 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $456 +$17 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 11m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $502 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $609 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $84 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $68 23m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $69 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $494 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $177 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? SELL No 87¢ $7 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $324 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $377 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $8 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $441 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $97 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $580 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $42 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $56 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $58 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $106 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $106 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $106 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $106 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $906 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $228 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $668 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $841 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.50 · official $752.50 (match) · 1276 history records