Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebbf…38ce sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$629 (-16%) realized −$630 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$187
sports 35% −$234
other 9% −$165
politics 2% $0
tech 2% −$36
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +152.9% +128.8% 100% 100% +138.5%
≤30d 7 +23.1% +11.4% 57% 57% +112.9%
≤90d 18 -6.8% -15.7% 44% 28% -22.0%
all 43 +3.5% -6.4% 51% 44% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 44% -25.6%
10% -15.3% 40% -32.7%
15% -23.5% 37% -39.2%
20% -31.0% 28% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$67 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$630
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage146d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 40¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $24 +$42 +179%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$12 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +32%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? May 09 $105 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $590 −$145 -25%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $38 +$3 +8%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 12 $94 $0 +0%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo Apr 08 $53 +$47 +89%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $514 +$13 +3%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 01 $165 −$165 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $14 −$2 -17%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 29 $879 −$56 -6%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $72 +$128 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 19 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: LAG Gaming vs regain - Map 1 Winner Feb 19 $51 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 18 $30 +$49 +163%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr Feb 18 $80 +$149 +186%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Feb 17 $58 +$42 +72%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Feb 16 $15 +$18 +122%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Peyton Stearns vs Qinwen Zheng Feb 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Feb 13 $55 +$22 +41%
Rotterdam Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Rinderknech Feb 12 $36 +$18 +49%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $27 +$10 +39%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $32 +$14 +45%
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Wizards vs. Nets Feb 08 $5 +$3 +54%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kic Feb 02 $15 +$20 +127%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jan 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $59 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 36¢ $24 25h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 30¢ $108 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 30¢ $150 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $145 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 30¢ $150 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 30¢ $150 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 29¢ $145 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $145 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of SELL Yes 25¢ $4 70d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 25¢ $4 70d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 73d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $91 73d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 73d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 73d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? SELL Down 83¢ $10 73d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? SELL Down 83¢ $29 73d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? SELL Down 83¢ $1 73d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? SELL Down 83¢ $2 73d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Down 77¢ $38 74d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Down 78¢ $39 74d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 SELL No 23¢ $42 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.73 · official $58.73 (match) · 136 history records