Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xebbf…3b77 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$370 (-11%) realized −$49 · open −$321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$173
14 days−$158
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$62
crypto 27% −$331
politics 21% −$305
other 16% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.5% -36.2% 40% 33% -16.8%
≤30d 16 -26.8% -33.8% 44% 38% -15.9%
≤90d 16 -26.8% -33.8% 44% 38% -15.9%
all 18 -28.2% -35.1% 44% 39% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 39% -15.6%
10% -41.3% 22% -23.7%
15% -47.0% 17% -31.0%
20% -52.2% 17% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$57 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$321
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions17
Markets (closed)18 / 35
History coverage185d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $147 $165 +$18 (+12%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $46 −$14 (-24%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $168 $17 −$150 (-90%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $107 $14 −$92 (-87%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $53 $12 −$41 (-78%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-90%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-97%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $153 −$6 -4%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 +$74 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $256 −$48 -19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $945 −$331 -35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $380 +$42 +11%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $253 +$127 +50%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $182 +$60 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the January Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the January m Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $111 +$84 +76%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $108 +$15 +13%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the January me Jan 16 $71 +$14 +20%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 1¢ $64 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 9¢ $97 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 7¢ $47 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $147 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $153 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $3 4h
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $176 4h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $102 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $106 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $207 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $256 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 27h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $21 38h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.13 · official $275.13 (match) · 93 history records