Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebc3…bea1 sports 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%17W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$4
politics 25% −$4
other 23% −$5
economics 9% −$1
crypto 6% −$3
world 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 207 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses17 / 190
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage175d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 23 $43 −$1 -2%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $38 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $141 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $40 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $358 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $150 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $303 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March? Mar 02 $47 −$1 -3%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $78 −$2 -2%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 25 $49 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 25 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $262 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $2 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $19 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $42 1h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $43 9h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 96¢ $38 13d
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $38 13d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $44 26d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $44 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 95¢ $39 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 96¢ $40 39d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $38 112d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $38 112d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $43 112d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $43 112d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $44 112d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $44 112d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $49 112d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $49 112d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $43 112d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $43 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $36 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $36 112d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 112d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 112d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 112d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 112d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $44 112d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $44 112d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $47 112d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $47 112d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 112d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 801 history records