Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebc3…f2ed politics 56 markets active 16h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 84% −$14
politics 8% −$5
other 4% +$27
sports 2% −$1
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.7% +14.6% 20% 20% -5.4%
≤30d 20 +6.6% -3.6% 10% 5% -8.3%
≤90d 42 +12.6% +1.8% 24% 17% -7.9%
all 54 +9.6% -0.8% 24% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 13% -9.5%
10% -10.3% 13% -18.1%
15% -19.0% 13% -26.0%
20% -26.9% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage611d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $5 +$6 +134%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$10 +129%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $73 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$6 +79%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $36 $0 +0%
Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $66 +$2 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 29 $13,526 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 15h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 25h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 47h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $5 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.25 · official $78.25 (match) · 246 history records