Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xebc8…6ef6 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 768d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+3%) realized +$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%35W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$310
other 6% −$147
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +47.6% +33.6% 100% 100% +33.6%
≤90d 1 +47.6% +33.6% 100% 100% +33.6%
all 67 -25.7% -32.8% 52% 42% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 42% -6.9%
10% -39.2% 25% -15.9%
15% -45.1% 12% -24.0%
20% -50.5% 7% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

768d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses35 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage768d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 03 $100 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 03 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 03 $100 +$103 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 03 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 03 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 03 $110 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 27 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 25 $200 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 25 $110 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 25 $95 +$30 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 25 $427 +$58 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 22 $310 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 22 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 21 $322 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 21 $200 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 21 $200 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 21 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 21 $150 +$33 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 21 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 21 $200 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 21 $2 +$3 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 20 $100 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 20 $200 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 20 $110 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 20 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 20 $200 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 20 $100 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 20 $100 +$66 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 19 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 19 $100 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 19 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 19 $110 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 19 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $97k November 3-9? Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $131 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $100 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $100 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $5 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $203 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $100 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $100 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $110 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $106 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $100 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $246 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $200 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $110 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $125 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $95 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $227 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $200 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.19 · official $160.19 (match) · 152 history records