Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xebcc…3386 sports 247 markets active 24h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$17 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%159W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$19
other 13% −$19
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +130.6% +108.7% 63% 57% -8.6%
≤30d 128 +79.9% +62.8% 62% 48% -5.8%
≤90d 244 +53.6% +39.0% 65% 42% -10.2%
all 244 +53.6% +39.0% 65% 42% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.0% 42% -10.2%
10% +25.7% 24% -18.8%
15% +13.5% 20% -26.7%
20% +2.4% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +82% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses159 / 85
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)244 / 247
History coverage71d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $102 $90 −$12 (-12%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 24¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $5 +$1 +30%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $0 $0 +155%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $2 +$2 +87%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $4 +$2 +54%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $4 +$2 +61%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +59%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +27%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 +$4 +186%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 +$2 +41%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $2 +$1 +70%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 +$2 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $5 +$3 +49%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs NightBirds (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: GOAL vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $2 +$4 +186%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $4 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $30 23h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 20¢ $1 3d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 34¢ $2 4d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Misa Esports 27¢ $2 4d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 81¢ $0 4d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $5 4d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 81¢ $5 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $30 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $81 5d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 9¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $2 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 22¢ $1 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL WLGaming Esports 13¢ $1 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 5¢ $0 5d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 19¢ $1 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team WE 19¢ $1 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 77¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $20 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $8 5d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL Karmine Corp Blue 83¢ $5 6d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali SELL LOUD 66¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 6d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 75¢ $5 6d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOUD 35¢ $1 6d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOUD 35¢ $0 6d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOUD 35¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 18¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.00 · official $124.90 (match) · 995 history records