Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xebcd…d2ef crypto 1151 markets active 1d ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate89%1015W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day65.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$57
14 days−$211
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$29
crypto 30% −$208
other 8% +$27
finance 5% +$43
economics 1% +$11
world 1% +$1
sports 1% +$17
politics 0% −$53
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -1.1% -10.5% 91% 14% -10.5%
≤30d 615 +1.8% -7.9% 90% 15% -9.6%
≤90d 1142 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 15% -10.0%
all 1142 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 15% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 15% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 4% -18.6%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$624
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1015 / 127
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1142 / 1151
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day65.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 85¢ 80¢ $110 $104 −$6 (-5%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $81 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 70¢ $80 $73 −$7 (-8%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $55 $61 +$5 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 95¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? No 51¢ 62¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $171 −$31 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$13 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $80 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$12 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $14 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $15 30h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $14 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $12 30h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 30h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? BUY No 51¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 30h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $25 35h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $32 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 37h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 37h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 37h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 37h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $10 37h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.73 · official $623.73 (match) · 3500 history records