Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebcd…eff0 sports 856 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+1%) realized +$95 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%441W / 378L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$86
14 days+$208
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$252
sports 36% +$435
crypto 3% +$6
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 +7.3% -3.0% 54% 54% -5.8%
≤30d 276 +13.3% +2.5% 55% 54% -2.5%
≤90d 307 +8.8% -1.6% 53% 52% -3.7%
all 819 +4.5% -5.5% 54% 53% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 53% -7.1%
10% -14.5% 51% -16.0%
15% -22.8% 47% -24.1%
20% -30.4% 39% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses441 / 378
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions14
Markets (closed)819 / 856
History coverage194d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 819 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-33%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 338 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$13 +65%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 Jun 26 $13 +$11 +86%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +26%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $20 +$8 +38%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $171 +$123 +72%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $90 −$1 -1%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $201 −$200 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$7 +136%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $121 +$39 +32%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $131 +$43 +33%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 25 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $54 +$22 +41%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $82 +$33 +40%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$35 +138%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $8 +$3 +38%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $57 −$36 -63%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 +$1 +86%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $12 +$10 +79%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 +$3 +129%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY 49¢ $3 39m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $20 40m
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 18¢ $2 45m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 7h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $25 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $293 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $32 10h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 39¢ $10 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 10h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $20 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $93 10h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 53¢ $13 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 10h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $138 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $49 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $90 10h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $1 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 13h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 13h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.43 · official $353.29 · 1503 history records