Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xebd3…fef4 other 22 markets active 1d ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$11 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
world 26% −$7
politics 23% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -90.0% -91.0% 0% 0% -84.4%
≤30d 7 +10.7% +0.1% 14% 14% -1.1%
≤90d 7 +10.7% +0.1% 14% 14% -1.1%
all 7 +10.7% +0.1% 14% 14% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 14% -1.1%
10% -9.4% 14% -10.6%
15% -18.2% 14% -19.2%
20% -26.2% 14% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions15
Markets (closed)7 / 22
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
James Comey in jail by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
E. Jean Carroll arrested by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -80%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $2 +$10 +525%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 43h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 7d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10d
James Comey in jail by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 10d
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 10d
E. Jean Carroll arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 15d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 17d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.80 · official $34.80 (match) · 27 history records