Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebd3…a15b other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 219L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$37
sports 21% −$15
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$8
culture 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage127d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $352 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $505 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $344 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $136 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $456 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $208 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $570 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $135 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $393 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $280 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $744 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 10h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 11h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 17h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 18h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 20h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 27h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 28h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $51 33h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $51 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $51 38h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 41h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 45h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $52 46h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 47h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.51 · official $50.51 (match) · 1302 history records