Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xebd3…473c crypto 680 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (349 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$3,261 (+12%) realized +$3,274 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate55%624W / 505L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day348.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,491
other 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (349 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1077 -40.9% -46.6% 54% 17% -16.6%
≤30d 1129 -38.7% -44.5% 55% 17% -15.8%
≤90d 1129 -38.7% -44.5% 55% 17% -15.8%
all 1129 -38.7% -44.5% 55% 17% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover348.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 17% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 5% -23.9%
15% -54.7% 1% -31.2%
20% -59.1% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$3,274
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses624 / 505
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1129 / 680
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day348.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $29 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$11 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$7 -144%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$19 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$5 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$25 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$43 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$14 -187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $32 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $31 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.63 · official $38.63 (match) · 3500 history records