Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EB 0xebd5…4a28 other 17 markets active 7d ago coverage 335d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$591 (+11%) realized +$591 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 335d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% $0
sports 9% +$610
other 1% −$9
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.7% -28.2% 78% 0% -30.7%
≤30d 9 -20.7% -28.2% 78% 0% -30.7%
≤90d 9 -20.7% -28.2% 78% 0% -30.7%
all 11 -6.1% -15.0% 82% 9% +82.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 9% +82.0%
10% -23.1% 9% +64.6%
15% -30.6% 9% +48.7%
20% -37.4% 9% +34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +101% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$8 · ×8.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×39.44 per $1 lost it wins $39.44
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$591
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage335d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 21 $7 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jul 16 $520 +$610 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.19 · official $26.19 (match) · 36 history records