Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebdb…5ac4 weather 1209 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$54 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate76%912W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$478
7 days−$526
14 days−$515
30 days−$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$636
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -5.9% -14.8% 64% 16% -19.0%
≤30d 858 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 17% -13.3%
≤90d 1197 +2.4% -7.3% 76% 20% -13.4%
all 1197 +2.4% -7.3% 76% 20% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 20% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 13% -21.7%
15% -24.3% 12% -29.2%
20% -31.7% 9% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses912 / 285
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1197 / 1209
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 22? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? No 98¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? No 99¢ 85¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 22? No 82¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 22? Yes 88¢ 48¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 22? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 22? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $41 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $25 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 +$5 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 +$3 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Jun 22 $52 −$31 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $46 −$9 -20%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $22 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $67 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 21 $93 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $43 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$14 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$5 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 28m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 38¢ $23 53m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 42¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 41¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? SELL No 49¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY No 50¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 19¢ $9 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 18¢ $7 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 50¢ $5 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 51¢ $26 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.85 · official $44.00 · 3500 history records