Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xebdb…a8f0 crypto 1099 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,287 (-7%) realized −$1,285 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%489W / 728L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day170.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$291
sports 1% +$108
other 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 -52.4% -56.9% 18% 14% -89.4%
≤30d 1217 -15.1% -23.2% 40% 36% -40.8%
≤90d 1217 -15.1% -23.2% 40% 36% -40.8%
all 1217 -15.1% -23.2% 40% 36% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 36% -40.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 30% -46.5%
15% -37.2% 26% -51.6%
20% -43.4% 21% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$1,285
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses489 / 728
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1217 / 1099
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day170.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $100 −$89 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will "Passenger" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1690%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $19 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.81 · official $72.81 (match) · 3500 history records