Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EB 0xebdc…778a sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$657 (+22%) realized +$843 · open −$186
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$445
14 days+$270
30 days+$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$526
other 7% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +49.4% +35.2% 70% 70% +26.8%
≤30d 18 +29.3% +17.0% 61% 61% +15.0%
≤90d 24 +34.8% +21.9% 62% 62% +14.8%
all 24 +34.8% +21.9% 62% 62% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.9% 62% +14.8%
10% +10.3% 62% +3.8%
15% -0.4% 62% -6.2%
20% -10.2% 62% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$112 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$843
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage71d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 11¢ $118 $33 −$85 (-72%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 51¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$113 +111%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $109 +$74 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $102 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $109 +$91 +83%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $178 −$176 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $104 +$76 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$184 +180%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$148 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $103 +$137 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $157 −$156 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $104 −$103 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $123 +$105 +86%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $154 +$224 +146%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $244 −$241 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $245 +$194 +79%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $120 +$147 +122%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $124 −$5 -4%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $128 +$172 +135%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $124 −$122 -98%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 20 $123 +$81 +66%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $11 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $13 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $13 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $13 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 51¢ $52 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $47 20h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $71 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 47¢ $102 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $30 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $72 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 54¢ $109 27h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $178 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $104 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $28 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $102 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $54 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $102 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $103 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 52¢ $23 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 52¢ $3 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 52¢ $1 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 52¢ $11 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 52¢ $47 7d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 52¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.40 · official $33.40 (match) · 70 history records