Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebdc…0b38 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-12%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 50% -22.8%
≤30d 10 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 50% -22.8%
≤90d 10 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 50% -22.8%
all 10 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 50% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 50% -22.8%
10% -36.4% 30% -30.2%
15% -42.6% 30% -36.9%
20% -48.2% 10% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage8d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$24 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $20 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.67 · official $49.67 (match) · 23 history records