Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EB 0xebdd…9666 crypto 472 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$876 (+10%) realized +$938 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%306W / 158L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day148.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$682
other 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 +12.3% +1.6% 66% 66% -1.1%
≤30d 464 +12.3% +1.6% 66% 66% -1.1%
≤90d 464 +12.3% +1.6% 66% 66% -1.1%
all 464 +12.3% +1.6% 66% 66% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 66% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.1% 65% -10.5%
15% -17.0% 64% -19.2%
20% -25.1% 57% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$938
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses306 / 158
Open positions9
Markets (closed)464 / 472
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day148.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 61¢ 96¢ $27 $42 +$16 (+59%)
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 54¢ 52¢ $29 $27 −$1 (-5%)
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 55¢ 54¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 56¢ 55¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 62¢ 50¢ $29 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 0¢ 57¢ $0 $22 +$22 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 35¢ 10¢ $33 $10 −$23 (-70%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$17 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$20 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$18 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$26 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$26 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$24 +78%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$10 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$25 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$20 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$24 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$41 +186%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$18 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$18 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$14 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$29 +119%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$15 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$42 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$7 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$37 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$10 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$19 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$14 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$13 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$19 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$13 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$12 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +54%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$10 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$11 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$13 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$9 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$11 +58%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$7 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$8 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$12 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $30 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $29 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $30 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $28 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $27 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $36 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $35 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $20 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $29 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $25 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $22 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.91 · official $213.07 · 972 history records