Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xebde…a230 crypto 338 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$223 (-2%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%133W / 205L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$760
7 days−$459
14 days−$382
30 days+$829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$564
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -63.7% -67.1% 16% 16% -39.7%
≤30d 59 -16.1% -24.1% 36% 36% +16.0%
≤90d 333 -2.7% -12.0% 39% 39% -13.3%
all 338 -2.3% -11.6% 39% 39% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 39% -13.0%
10% -20.1% 39% -21.4%
15% -27.8% 39% -29.0%
20% -34.9% 39% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$38 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses133 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)338 / 338
History coverage90d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 338 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$122 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$25 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $340 +$223 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $18 +$18 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $155 +$157 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $7 +$25 +341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 30 $282 +$448 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 28 $9 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 26 $370 +$209 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 25 $21 +$50 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 22 $9 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $84 +$166 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $8 +$12 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $340 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $124 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $18 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $155 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $73 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $32 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $18 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $282 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $137 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $21 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 848 history records