Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebde…ab84 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$799 (+18%) realized +$800 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%36W / 26L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$344
14 days+$344
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$754
other 19% +$48
sports 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.9% -1.5% 75% 75% +8.6%
≤30d 20 +8.9% -1.5% 75% 75% +8.6%
≤90d 21 +10.2% -0.3% 76% 76% +9.3%
all 62 -3.7% -12.9% 58% 58% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 58% +8.7%
10% -21.2% 53% -1.7%
15% -28.8% 45% -11.2%
20% -35.8% 23% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$34 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$800
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses36 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage123d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $135 −$100 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $181 +$77 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$59 +57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$145 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$111 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 14 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$35 +35%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 01 $95 +$73 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 01 $100 +$36 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 01 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 27 $100 +$178 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 27 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 26 $100 +$89 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 26 $140 +$47 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 26 $100 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 26 $100 +$62 +62%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 22 $20 +$12 +62%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 22 $70 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 22 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 15 $50 −$22 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 15 $35 −$14 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 15 $30 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 15 $48 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 15 $25 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $119 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.31 · official $99.31 (match) · 146 history records