Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebde…1de0 sports 989 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,614 (-8%) realized −$1,606 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%384W / 604L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day62.6pace
Fees−$478est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$229
14 days−$161
30 days−$812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,123
other 3% −$246
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -22.4% -29.8% 41% 37% -19.0%
≤30d 483 -9.4% -18.1% 44% 40% -21.0%
≤90d 988 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 35% -23.1%
all 988 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 35% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 35% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 31% -30.4%
15% -39.3% 27% -37.2%
20% -45.2% 22% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,606
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses384 / 604
Est. fees paid−$478
Open positions3
Markets (closed)988 / 989
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day62.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 988 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Rinky Hijikata 15¢ 29¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+99%)
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Elena Rybakina 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Taylah Preston 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 18 $1 +$6 +511%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Mert Alkaya Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Elina Svitolina Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Andrew Fenty Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Savannah: Daniel Galan vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Mariano Navone vs Alexander Zverev Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Madrid Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Solana Sierra Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Savannah: Daniel Galan vs Nishesh Basavareddy Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Madrid Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Blockx Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Alycia Parks vs Ann Li Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Rome: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 18 $5 −$1 -31%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $4 +$7 +178%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $4 −$1 -27%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Tauste: Ru Xi Wu vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 17 $7 +$10 +136%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $24 −$8 -34%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $52 −$2 -3%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $72 +$13 +18%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $3 −$1 -28%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $7 +$6 +85%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $5 +$25 +449%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $17 +$13 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 16¢ $1 6m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 14¢ $1 12m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 28¢ $7 27m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 52¢ $10 44m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 57¢ $11 47m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 43¢ $5 47m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 44¢ $5 59m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 48¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tommy Paul 96¢ $6 3h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 96¢ $9 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 32¢ $3 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 24¢ $2 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 10¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 78¢ $3 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 44¢ $3 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 48¢ $2 4h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 22¢ $2 5h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 13¢ $1 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 56¢ $2 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 64¢ $2 5h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Fritz 67¢ $1 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 2¢ $1 15h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 1¢ $1 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $3.34 (match) · 3500 history records