Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xebe0…f2f2
other · 102 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$32 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$30 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage126d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
76ers vs. Pelicans 76ers 60¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Raptors 36¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Magic Wizards 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Rockets Rockets 76¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Clippers 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $140 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $130 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $132 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $125 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $275 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $139 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $135 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $131 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $29 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $125 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $127 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 15 $242 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $321 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $119 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $124 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $351 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $121 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $312 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% −$7
politics 27% −$5
sports 7% +$43
world 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 10h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 13d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $14 14d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $140 15d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $140 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $130 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $130 19d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $132 19d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $132 19d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 19d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $114 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $125 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $125 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $138 21d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $138 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $135 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $135 22d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $131 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 72 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 101 +0.3% -9.3% 11% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 6% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 5% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.99 · official $18.99 (match) · 310 history records