Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebe1…23c7 other 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$933 (-20%) realized −$941 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%38W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days−$701
14 days−$668
30 days−$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$961
crypto 35% −$155
sports 27% +$309
world 1% −$31
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -1.7% -11.0% 47% 43% -31.9%
≤30d 65 +18.1% +6.8% 43% 40% -30.7%
≤90d 65 +18.1% +6.8% 43% 40% -30.7%
all 85 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 38% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 38% -26.7%
10% -12.4% 33% -33.7%
15% -20.9% 33% -40.1%
20% -28.6% 29% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$45 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$941
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 47
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)85 / 89
History coverage91d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $60 $81 +$21 (+35%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 36¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-33%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$38 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $74 −$15 -20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$19 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 +$63 +172%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 −$31 -56%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$76 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 +$58 +170%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 +$22 +33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$97 +190%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$22 -44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $56 +$32 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$27 -67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $94 +$86 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$72 +237%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$7 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $81 −$26 -32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 +$2 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$27 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$36 +56%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$108 +262%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $138 −$136 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 −$14 -78%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $58 −$38 -65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $905 −$900 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $71 +$111 +155%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$25 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $65 −$64 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $41 35m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $75 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $14 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $39 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $37 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $59 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $7 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $8 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.69 · official $124.93 (match) · 202 history records