Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebe1…7a5b sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$175 (-31%) realized −$93 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 603d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$75
other 33% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 13 -28.1% -35.0% 38% 38% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 38% -42.0%
10% -41.2% 38% -47.6%
15% -46.9% 38% -52.6%
20% -52.1% 31% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$39 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage603d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 3¢ $86 $4 −$82 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? Nov 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nov 02 $37 +$22 +58%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Nov 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Nov 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Nov 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Suns vs. Clippers Nov 01 $13 +$18 +138%
Texans vs. Jets Nov 01 $39 +$14 +37%
Pelicans vs. Warriors Nov 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-2? Nov 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Oct 31 $40 +$49 +122%
Magic vs. Bulls Oct 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Knicks vs. Heat Oct 31 $44 +$34 +78%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Oct 31 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $87 2h
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 599d
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 50¢ $34 599d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SELL Nuggets 65¢ $59 599d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 24¢ $9 599d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 41¢ $37 600d
Bulls vs. Nets BUY Bulls 42¢ $25 600d
Suns vs. Clippers SELL Suns 76¢ $31 600d
Suns vs. Clippers BUY Suns 32¢ $13 600d
Texans vs. Jets SELL Texans 63¢ $53 601d
Rockets vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 72¢ $50 601d
Texans vs. Jets BUY Texans 46¢ $39 601d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers SELL Trail Blazers 100¢ $89 601d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Trail Blazers 45¢ $40 601d
Pelicans vs. Warriors BUY Pelicans 36¢ $39 601d
Knicks vs. Heat SELL Knicks 100¢ $78 602d
Lakers vs. Cavaliers SELL Lakers 1¢ $1 602d
Will the Dodgers win the World Series 4-2? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 602d
Magic vs. Bulls BUY Magic 66¢ $40 602d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Knicks 56¢ $44 602d
Lakers vs. Cavaliers BUY Lakers 36¢ $50 602d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.01 · official $5.19 · 25 history records