Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebe3…883d crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-7%) realized −$217 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%50W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$62
14 days−$107
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$9
sports 21% +$74
finance 14% −$250
other 2% −$18
weather 2% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +16.1% +5.1% 68% 63% -27.8%
≤30d 44 -21.8% -29.2% 45% 41% -41.9%
≤90d 99 +10.0% -0.5% 51% 45% -16.4%
all 99 +10.0% -0.5% 51% 45% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 45% -16.4%
10% -10.0% 41% -24.4%
15% -18.7% 33% -31.7%
20% -26.7% 27% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$26 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses50 / 49
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions10
Markets (closed)99 / 109
History coverage44d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $44 $66 +$22 (+49%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 20¢ 62¢ $10 $32 +$22 (+214%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 33¢ 58¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+76%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $64 $15 −$50 (-77%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 40¢ 96¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+140%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 33¢ 21¢ $13 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Down 49¢ 68¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+38%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 93¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $22 +$22 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$9 -55%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 22 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $68 −$14 -21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$10 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$9 -74%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $43 +$10 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $29 −$27 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $70 −$60 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $96 −$75 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $36 −$12 -32%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $30 +$38 +125%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $3 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $13 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $18 +$18 +100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 24 $5 −$2 -45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $57 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $16 +$7 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 48¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 49¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 47¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 56¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 51¢ $6 24h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 49¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 48¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 62¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 59¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.60 · official $160.66 (match) · 649 history records