Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xebe4…5d45 crypto 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate72%247W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$70
world 1% +$1
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -1.1% -10.5% 72% 40% -10.4%
≤30d 109 -1.1% -10.5% 72% 40% -10.4%
≤90d 343 -2.8% -12.1% 72% 39% -10.7%
all 343 -2.8% -12.1% 72% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 39% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 22% -19.3%
15% -28.2% 11% -27.1%
20% -35.2% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses247 / 96
Open positions1
Markets (closed)343 / 344
History coverage59d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 58¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$17 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$28 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $67 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$44 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$34 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $97 −$51 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 1579 history records